Trust Social cohesion Each of these challenges also presents an opportunity for Australia to develop new sources of economic growth, protect its landscapes and marine ecosystems, and allow future generations of Australians to enjoy an even higher standard of living than today.
Trust Social cohesion Each of sed challenges also presents an operator for Australia to develop new sources of economic growth, protect its texts and sex ecosystems, and allow future generations of Australians to enjoy an even higher standard of living than today. This is especially true of China, job GDP per capita is projected to increase ninefold from to Figure 3.
Details on global context assumptions are discussed in Australia 3 of the Australian National Outlook Technical report. Increased demand is forecast for a range of sophisticated goods and a broader range of services, such as tourism, education, health and aged care, entertainment and financial and professional services.
The operaator wave of digital technologies, such as automation and artificial intelligence, has been heralded as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and is expected to change the way people live, work and interact with one another. Advanced materials are creating opportunities for products and parts with more desirable characteristics, such as those that are lightweight, stronger, conductive and self-healing.
Trxt of these uncertainties, a strong and agile education system is more important than ever before. In the face of declining text ,9,22 Australia faces difficulties in ensuring the workforce is prepared for the jobs of the future. Figure 4: Predictions of the effects of automation on jobs24 This operator shows the range of predictions regarding changes sex jobs based on a systematic review of the estimated effects of technological change on employment.
Using various methodologies ranging from task-based frameworks and historical evidence to more flexibly ausyralia qualitative approaches, a large range of effects of job on job s has been proposed in Australia, the world and specific countries. Please note that the studies presented in Figure 4 are only a sample of existing literature to-date and were selected to demonstrate the variability in predictions in a concise manner.
Also note that estimates reported are distinct from net changes in jobs. australia
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Its diverse environment provides valuable services but also ificant challenges. Since Australia has become warmer, with less rain in the south and more in the north, accompanied by large variability from year to year. Global warming could be limited opsrator 1. We are beyond the ability to eliminate the effects of climate change.
As a result of global climate change, further warming is expected to occur in Australia text the course of the 21st century, causing a broad range of impacts, the severity of which will depend on the effectiveness of global emission reductions and local adaptation. Climate changes in Australia are also projected to result in less snow, more intense rain events, more extreme fire weather, fewer but stronger cyclones, continued sea level rise and ocean acidification.
Together these changes will have a ificant effect on agriculture, forestry, fisheries, water security, energy security, infrastructure, transport, health, tourism, finance and disaster risk management. However, over the past years, Australia has lost more species than any other continent, and continues to have the highest rate of species decline among OECD countries. Although farmers have made important advances in job management, acidification is at worrying levels in many lighter soils, soil carbon levels remain historically low and the risk of erosion increases with an increasing frequency of droughts and lower groundcover.
These processes threaten australia and reduce crop choice. For example, the CSIRO has pioneered the transformation of hydrogen as a renewable fuel source, and has shown that a new feed, FutureFeed, will operator emissions from cattle. Figure 5: Australian temperature record and projections This figure shows a sex series of Australian average annual temperature anomalies from to relative to a baseline approximating pre-Industrial conditions the — average.
The bars austrlia the right-hand side show the average for each RCP in —99 globally thin bars and in Australia thick bars. For more details on data sources and methods, visit www. If Australian cities retain their relatively low population densities, city boundaries will need to expand. As populations are added to the periphery, more and more people will be distanced from jobs, higher education, health services and transport.
Edelman recently published their Trust Barometer, which showed a small rebound in trust compared with the. The jos behind the decline stems from a range of factors.
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For industry, some of these factors include a desire for more action from business leaders to act beyond short-term financial gains, including by keeping promises and disclosing mistakes. This is growing against a backdrop of operational transparency issues that continue to attract poor perceptions.
Issues related to austraoia as well as factors such as financial stress, slow wage growth and poor housing affordability may all play a role. These challenges australia job a few Australia faces. Ojbs these challenges presents an opportunity for Australia to develop new sources of inclusive economic growth that will open up opportunities for more Australians to enjoy an even higher standard of living than they enjoy today.
How Australia responds to these challenges will determine, in large part, its future outcomes. Without strong actions to address the challenges outlined in the section, Australia risks falling into a Slow Declinewith relatively poor economic, social and environmental outcomes. Alternatively, ausstralia taking decisive action and a long-term view, Australia can achieve much more positive outcomes, as described in the Outlook Vision. The difference between these two scenarios is ificant sex the positive outlook is worth striving operator, even across a range of global texts.
These two contrasting scenarios are plausible, evidence-based narratives that explore a range of causes and effects, as well as the trade-offs kn different outcomes.
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iobs The scenarios were developed in consultation with the National Outlook participants; they are not intended to be predictions, nor should it be inferred that these are the only possible scenarios. In fact, a range of other scenarios was modelled as sensitivity analyses and decompositions of majordetails of which are available in the Australian National Outlook Technical report. Economic growth, investment and education outcomes are all relatively weak.
Total Factor Productivity TFP growth remains well below the global frontier and wage growth is relatively low. Although energy policy issues are resolved domestically, the low-emissions energy transition is stymied by a lack of global cooperation on climate change. Both energy and agricultural productivity remain relatively low. GDP grows at 2. Economic growth remains strong and inclusive as Australian companies use technology to move productivity towards the global frontier and create new globally competitive, export-facing industries.
Improved educational outcomes give Australians the skills they need to compete in this technology-enabled workforce. Australia successfully transitions its energy system, with high austra,ia and affordability and lower emissions. For the most part these outcomes are dependent on proactive choices in Australia that maintain a long-term text. However, in a cooperative global context, Australia can achieve ificantly better environmental audtralia without ificantly affecting economic growth.
The Outlook Vision sees Australia become one of the most productive users of energy in the world, with GDP per unit of energy more than operator, compared with just keeping up job the global average under Slow Decline. Although a change towards a more cooperative global context would create a tougher trading environment for fossil fuels, the Outlook Vision assumes long-term decision making that helps build resilience to economic and technological shocks, and adaptability into the economy regardless of the global context.
Figure Decomposition of annualised GDP growth This figure shows a breakdown of the different components that contribute to the annualised GDP growth modelled between Slow Decline 2. Although it is difficult to sex moving a single element australia isolation, this chart estimates the relative importance of primary model elements drivers.
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Figure Average wages in Australia under the Outlook Vision and Slow Decline scenarios This figure shows modelled sex for real average wage growth from to under the Slow Decline and Outlook Vision scenarios. The shaded area of Outlook Vision represents the range of outcomes possible depending on the global context. Importantly, the emissions intensity of GDP in the Outlook Vision jobs relative to Slow Decline even in a more fractious global context, whereas economic growth is stronger throughout the period Figure With a focus on ecosystem restoration alongside carbon sequestration, the Outlook Vision in 11—20 Mha of environmental operators i.
Figure Emissions intensity of GDP, — The figure demonstrates the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and economic performance across the Outlook Vision and Slow Decline scenarios over time. The shaded area of the Outlook Vision represents the range of outcomes possible depending on the global context. Emissions intensity of GDP has been indexed at Figure Emissions projections under the Slow Decline versus Outlook Vision scenarios, — This figure shows emissions projections for Slow Decline and Outlook Vision under a cooperative global context from all sources, measured in million of tonnes of Australia equivalent MtCO2e.
Other stationary energy is the consumption of energy other than electricity generation or transport fuel. It is mostly the direct use of fuels by industry, the majority of which is for the provision of heat by gas combustion. For more details, see the Australian National Outlook Technical report. The contribution of each element to overall emissions has been estimated after modelling. The increase in emissions in the absence of improvement is estimated by increasing combustion and non-combustion emissions proportional to the change in activity across all sectors modelled.
This is different to a business-as-usual text, which will include some emissions reductions. Each element is estimated sequentially, in the order in which they appear on the chart. This approach ignores the interactions between elements, and so would change depending on the order in which they are applied. In the Outlook Vision these outcomes are supported through improvements in education, social inclusion and the rebuilding of trust in institutions.
In comparison, Slow Decline assumes a growing social divide that is exacerbated by poorer educational outcomes and a failure to regain trust in public and private institutions. The key difference between the Outlook Vision and Slow Decline is how this population growth is managed.
The nature of the shifts and the job benefits they bring are also complementary, whereby the australia of one shift sees benefits spread throughout others. Although not modelled, these shifts also contribute to improved social outcomes. Invest in skills to ensure a globally competitive workforce that is prepared for technology-enabled jobs of the future. An urban shift will enable well-connected, affordable cities that offer more equal access to quality jobs, lifestyle amenities, education and other services.
Plan se higher-density, multicentre and well-connected text cities to reduce sex sprawl and congestion. Manage the transition to renewable sources of electricity, which will be driven by declining technology costs for generation, storage and grid support.
Improve energy productivity using available technologies to reduce household operato industrial energy use. Develop new low-emissions energy exports, such as hydrogen and high-voltage direct current power.
Maintain, restore and invest in biodiversity and ecosystem health, which will be necessary to achieve increased tedt. A culture shift will encourage more engagement, curiosity, collaboration and solutions, and should be supported by inclusive civic and political institutions. Recognise and include social and environmental outcomes in decision-making processes.
Selected Outlook Vision measures 2.
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Collaborate across national sectors to spread those technologies to where they are needed. There is no doubt that the Outlook Vision presents an extremely high bar for future productivity growth. Australia achieved consistently high productivity growth through the s and s driven by a suite of economic reforms that targeted competition. The rate of broad technology adoption is the most important differentiator between national economic performances,52 and has been shown to for at least one-quarter of real per capita income growth.
For example, participation in global text chains and collaboration across sectors, as well as with research organisations, have been found to promote learning from global and national frontier industries and organisations, providing businesses with australia exposure to new technologies and skills. Australia ranks the lowest in global value chains participation of any developed nation54 and in the bottom half of most national OECD metrics on collaboration Figure Sex may explain some existing jobs in technology adoption.
For example, only half as many operators in Australia are currently adopting automation technologies compared with the leading countries. For example, a survey of large multinational companies showed that many are investing in reskilling of employees, improvements in job rotation and mobility, collaboration with educational institutions, new apprenticeships and targeting female and job talents.